Now that the US' world cup hopes are done, and I have taken a few days to calm down and fully asses what happened, here is what I think about the US performance.
Assessment By Position
Defenders
The defense in general was simply not good enough. Too many easy goals were conceeded, and Tim Howard never really had one of those shining games where he just puts it all together and dazzles us. Although, some may argue that this defense has been doomed ever since that fateful night back in October, when Oguchi Onyewu went down with a knee injury. There was simply no way that he could have come back in top form in time for the world cup. The reason this had such an impact is not just the loss of his talent and experience, but it causes a ripple effect on the rest of the defense. Carlos Bocanegra shines in the left back position, but with Onyewu not being fit he is forced to slid into the middle. Jonathan Bornstein played well at the left back spot, but Bocanegra showed that he lacks the fortitude to command the defense from the center as well as the skill to take on top class strikers.
Jay Demerit was another guy who may have struggled from missing time due to injury. He wowed with his effort and grit but he made a couple of huge mental mistakes that led to a couple of goals. With the damage he has already done to his body, i would be surprised if he plays in another world cup.
The highlight of the defense was Steve Cherundolo, and experienced defender who showed some great crossing ability. He is 31, and looks to be in incredible shape, so he may have another shot at making the 2014 team, but more than likely as a sub.
Hopefully there are a few guys that just missed out on this world cup (Heath Pearce and Chad Marshall to name a few) who will develop into starting defenders because the cupboard is pretty bare as far as young promising defenders. If i were to guess right now, I would say Gooch is the only returning starter at the next world cup.
Midfield
The midfield was again the strength of the US team, scoring all of the goals and showing some great promise. The only lone dark spot was the play of Ricardo Clark. Clark had been a regular for the team this cycle and had been a goal scoring threat during qualifying. However, a few mental mistakes led to goals scored by the opposition. He was poor possessing the ball, and was constantly being beat to the ball.
Outside of Clark, the midfield shined. Landon Donovan had an incredible tournament and is currently tied for the lead in most goals scored in the tournament. He without a doubt set himself up for a permanent move to Europe with his performance. Dempsey, while only netting the one lucky goal, showed a tireless work ethic that was the fuel that kept this team going. He possessed the ball well and made some great runs. Michael Bradley was one of the best young stars of the tournament. At only 22, you have to think the future looks bright indeed for coach Bob Bradley's son. Substitutes Maurice Edu and Benny Fielhaber logged a number of quality minutes, and were great sparks off the bench. It was just bad luck that neither of them were able to get a goal. Both of those guys are also pretty young, and should challenge for a starting spot, with Edu potentially moving to center back. Another guy who showed some promise the last month was Jose Torres. He had a couple of good looks and show good ability to possess the ball. It truly was a story of an entire midfield playing well with the exception of Clark.
Forwards
This was the biggest question mark for the US going into the world cup. Would strikers that had less than 5 caps each be able to provide the spark necessary to fuel the offense. The answer was no. The US went yet another world cup without any goals being scored from the forwards. Jozy Altidore made some great plays and showed some tremendous ability, but was not able to finish on any of his chances. Robbie Findley simply showed a lack of finishing ability, and Edson Buddle and Hercules Gomez could not stay true to their great club forms. With Buddle is unlikely to be back in the world cup in four years, and Gomez and Findley have a long way to go before being able to be that second piece to Altidore consistently. Charlie Davies remains the best hope for finding a striker to partner with Altidore.
Coach
Bob Bradley certainly did a capable job at this World Cup. He showed that he is great at assessing the game as it happens and knowing what tactical changes he needs to make for the team to be successful. However, the fact that the US started so poorly in nearly all of their matches shows to me that the team is poorly prepared for each match. It is not a coincidence that the opposition keeps scoring so early in the match. In my opinion, that goes back to the coach and his preparation of the game. I don't think Bradley will be back. Perhaps US Soccer makes another run at Jurgen Klinsman, a move that I would love, but the fact is that US Soccer needs to continue to develop, and I just don't think that happens any further under Bob Bradley.
Ultimately this team showed that it was better than the second round exit. They won their group despite their struggles, and in my opinion could have gone far in the tournament with a few minor improvements. Consider this... while every team has injuries to overcome at some point in the world cup cycle, could it have come at worse spots for the US team? Midfield has always been one of our strengths. While it would have been awful if Donovan or Dempsey had gone down, we have a lot of depth at midfield. The same can not be said for defense and forwards. Losing Onyewu and Davies might have had an immeasurable impact on this team, and cost them some greater success.
Potential new faces at the next world cup:
Charlie Davies- Davies needs to continue to develop and become the compliment to Jozy Altidore we all want.
Freddy Adu- Can the once heralded youngster turn his career around and become a factor on the national stage?
Justin Braun- Young forward- plays for Chivas USA
Kevin Alston- Young defender- plays for New England Revolution
Wave goodbye to...
Jay Demerit- at 31, and with the damage already done to his body, he is likely on the way out.
DeMarcus Beasley- The once star of the US seems to be fading quickly off into the sunset.
Carlos Bocanegra- He will be 35 at the next cup, and frankly he didn't play well in this one. Would be surprised if he gave it another run.
Edson Buddle- Couldn't capitalize on an opportunity to re-ignite his career. Will be 35 at the next cup. No chance.
Other possibilities include Steve Cherundolo, Stuart Holden, and Hercules Gomez.
Potential 2014 starting lineup
RS- Jozy Altidore
LS- Charlie Davies
LM- Landon Donovan
LCM- Freddy Adu
RCM- Michael Bradley
RM- Clint Dempsey
LB- Jonathan Bornstein (assuming he continues from his good performance saturday)
LCB- Maurice Edu (He is too good to not be in the lineup)
RCB- Gooch
RB- Spector or maybe still Cherundolo.
This is impossible to truly predict more than 4 years away. There is a lot of young talent that should be back, but you never know when a kid like a Jozy Altidore might come along. There were only 4 starters from this team that started at the last world cup. Will Brazil 2014 be a similar story?
Monday, June 28, 2010
Friday, June 11, 2010
US World Cup Preview
Tomorrow (or later today...) the US Men's National team opens up play in the 2010 world cup against England. Here is everything you need to know about the United States soccer team.
My Projected Starting Lineup
GK- Tim Howard
LB- Carlos Bocanegra
LCB- Jay Demerit
RCB- Oguchi Onyewu
RB- Steve Cherundolo
LM- Landon Donovan
LCM- Benny Feilhaber
RCM- Michael Bradley
RM- Clint Dempsey
LS- Robbie Findley
RS- Jozy Altidore
Potential Subs
LS- Edson Buddle
LCM- Jose Torres
RCB- Clarence Goodson
LM- DeMarcus Beasley
LS- Hercules Gomez
RB- Jonathan Spector
Strengths-
1) Goalkeeper- Tim Howard is unanimously considered to be one of the best goal keepers in the world. If he is at the top of his game, there isn't a team that the United States can't beat. Last summer the US beat Spain (largely considered the best team in the world) 2-0 and Tim Howard had the best game of his career.
2) Wings- Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan are probably the two best players on this team. They score a lot of goals and have had a lot of recent success in the English Premier League. These two have to have a huge tournament for the US to be successful.
Weaknesses-
1) Experience at forward- Jozy Altidore, 20, is by far our most experienced forward. That is bad news. The good news is the group of forwards is a talented bunch that have all been scoring a lot of goals lately.
2) Lack of pace and possession- The biggest weakness of the United States team has always been their ability to hold on the ball and stretch out possessions. In order to be successful, they have to have better pace and be able to move the ball around and control the tempo of the game.
3) Injury questions- Oguchi Onyewu, the best defender on this team, has not played a full match since suffering a knee injury in October. He will need to prove that he is at the top of his game, because without him, the US backline looks significant worse. Forward Jozy Altidore has also been struggling with an ankle injury, but appears ready to play.
What to look for against England on Saturday:
1) Can the US attack early. They have to get on the board first. If England scores early in the match, it will be incredible difficult for the US to come back and get points. The key is get the ball to Landon Donovan early and often and allow him the opportunity to create chances.
2) How fit is Oguchi Onyewu. If he struggles against England, it will be a long day Saturday.
3) Can the US match the speed of the english. The forwards and wings for England are incredibly fast. Watch for them to try to stretch the US on the outside.
4) How well does the defense play as a unit. My projected starting defense has not played together for a full match since last summer. They need to gel quickly and play together as a unit for the United States to be successful.
Predictions-
2-2 draw vs. England
2-1 victory over Slovenia
3-1 victory over Algeria
Group prediction- USA finishes second in the group based on goal difference.
Advancement prediction- US loses to Argentina in the quarterfinals
Best case scenario- US win the group and face a weakened Germany team. They advance to play France, who shouldn't have even qualified (see Ireland vs France handball), who they can beat, but then they would likely meet Brazil, and would exit in the semifinals.
My Projected Starting Lineup
GK- Tim Howard
LB- Carlos Bocanegra
LCB- Jay Demerit
RCB- Oguchi Onyewu
RB- Steve Cherundolo
LM- Landon Donovan
LCM- Benny Feilhaber
RCM- Michael Bradley
RM- Clint Dempsey
LS- Robbie Findley
RS- Jozy Altidore
Potential Subs
LS- Edson Buddle
LCM- Jose Torres
RCB- Clarence Goodson
LM- DeMarcus Beasley
LS- Hercules Gomez
RB- Jonathan Spector
Strengths-
1) Goalkeeper- Tim Howard is unanimously considered to be one of the best goal keepers in the world. If he is at the top of his game, there isn't a team that the United States can't beat. Last summer the US beat Spain (largely considered the best team in the world) 2-0 and Tim Howard had the best game of his career.
2) Wings- Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan are probably the two best players on this team. They score a lot of goals and have had a lot of recent success in the English Premier League. These two have to have a huge tournament for the US to be successful.
Weaknesses-
1) Experience at forward- Jozy Altidore, 20, is by far our most experienced forward. That is bad news. The good news is the group of forwards is a talented bunch that have all been scoring a lot of goals lately.
2) Lack of pace and possession- The biggest weakness of the United States team has always been their ability to hold on the ball and stretch out possessions. In order to be successful, they have to have better pace and be able to move the ball around and control the tempo of the game.
3) Injury questions- Oguchi Onyewu, the best defender on this team, has not played a full match since suffering a knee injury in October. He will need to prove that he is at the top of his game, because without him, the US backline looks significant worse. Forward Jozy Altidore has also been struggling with an ankle injury, but appears ready to play.
What to look for against England on Saturday:
1) Can the US attack early. They have to get on the board first. If England scores early in the match, it will be incredible difficult for the US to come back and get points. The key is get the ball to Landon Donovan early and often and allow him the opportunity to create chances.
2) How fit is Oguchi Onyewu. If he struggles against England, it will be a long day Saturday.
3) Can the US match the speed of the english. The forwards and wings for England are incredibly fast. Watch for them to try to stretch the US on the outside.
4) How well does the defense play as a unit. My projected starting defense has not played together for a full match since last summer. They need to gel quickly and play together as a unit for the United States to be successful.
Predictions-
2-2 draw vs. England
2-1 victory over Slovenia
3-1 victory over Algeria
Group prediction- USA finishes second in the group based on goal difference.
Advancement prediction- US loses to Argentina in the quarterfinals
Best case scenario- US win the group and face a weakened Germany team. They advance to play France, who shouldn't have even qualified (see Ireland vs France handball), who they can beat, but then they would likely meet Brazil, and would exit in the semifinals.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Why Georgia State Football Will Be Successful
As most are now aware, Georgia State University has launched a football program. Under the direction of prestigious coach Bill Curry (former coach of Alabama, Georgia Tech, and Kentucky) the Panthers inaugural season will start September 2 again Shorter College. Their home games will be played at the Georgia Dome.
Like any fledgling program, I am sure that they will have their hardships over the next couple of years. However, I believe Georgia State is in a prime position to do very well for themselves and become a successful college program, outlined below.
1) Demand
The state of Georgia has solidified itself as one of the best states for competitive high school football. While the Big Three for high school football are without question Florida, Texas, and California; Georgia has cemented themselves as a member of the next tier which includes states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. This is evident in the number of college level talent that the state produces. Last year more than 100 athletes from Georgia signed with D-1 programs. Therefore, there is no shortage of talent right here in GSU's own backyard. However, many of those students go to college rather far away from home because that is where they were offered a scholarship. Which leads me to my next point...
2) Location
Being in such a rich recruiting state, GSU really does have a prime location. Many of these athletes that don't want to go far away from home are now provided with another option. There are so many athletes in the state, but only so many spots on the Georgia Tech and UGA roster, who also recruit very well nationally. With no other major college athletics option in the state, I believe GSU will rake in all of that leftover talent. Also the fact that GSU is in Atlanta is a big draw. The opportunities that being in such an urban city provides is an attractive option for student athletes. It is a better option than statesboro or valdosta, at least.
3) Prestige
Already the GSU Athletics department have done an incredible job adding prestige to a newborn program. They hired an experienced and well thought of coach who has had some success at the major college level. They also secured the Georgia Dome for their use, which some may scoff at and say that there is no way that GSU could ever fill up the dome and therefore it hurts the program more than helps. But i disagree. No, panther supporters will not fill the Dome. But the opportunity to play in such a prestigious venue is attractive to athletes nonetheless. And i do believe that attendance surprise many. The first game especially, i believe, will draw 20,000 plus to the dome, and maybe even upwards of 30,000. There are so many GSU alum still living in the city, and the excitement of starting a new program is sure to draw a crowd. But I also believe that GSU will get a draw from another demographic. There are still 400,000 people that live in the city limits of Atlanta and another 5 million in the metro area. In an area that puts such a premium on competitive football, I think it is likely the city will be interested to see where GSU football goes and will pay the small fees to watch history take place.
Already we are beginning to see the effects of these advantages. Georgia State just signed a class of 28, and also added 4 big time college transfers. Two Georgia Tech offensive lineman, and Auburn Tight End, and an Alabama quarterback have all transferred to play ball this year at GSU. The quarterback transfer is by far the biggest acquisition by coach Curry's staff. He was a top 10 quarterback and a four star recruit according rivals.com. Therefore it is evident that there is a draw to playing for such a great coach, in such a great city, and having the excitement of starting a new program.
Like any fledgling program, I am sure that they will have their hardships over the next couple of years. However, I believe Georgia State is in a prime position to do very well for themselves and become a successful college program, outlined below.
1) Demand
The state of Georgia has solidified itself as one of the best states for competitive high school football. While the Big Three for high school football are without question Florida, Texas, and California; Georgia has cemented themselves as a member of the next tier which includes states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. This is evident in the number of college level talent that the state produces. Last year more than 100 athletes from Georgia signed with D-1 programs. Therefore, there is no shortage of talent right here in GSU's own backyard. However, many of those students go to college rather far away from home because that is where they were offered a scholarship. Which leads me to my next point...
2) Location
Being in such a rich recruiting state, GSU really does have a prime location. Many of these athletes that don't want to go far away from home are now provided with another option. There are so many athletes in the state, but only so many spots on the Georgia Tech and UGA roster, who also recruit very well nationally. With no other major college athletics option in the state, I believe GSU will rake in all of that leftover talent. Also the fact that GSU is in Atlanta is a big draw. The opportunities that being in such an urban city provides is an attractive option for student athletes. It is a better option than statesboro or valdosta, at least.
3) Prestige
Already the GSU Athletics department have done an incredible job adding prestige to a newborn program. They hired an experienced and well thought of coach who has had some success at the major college level. They also secured the Georgia Dome for their use, which some may scoff at and say that there is no way that GSU could ever fill up the dome and therefore it hurts the program more than helps. But i disagree. No, panther supporters will not fill the Dome. But the opportunity to play in such a prestigious venue is attractive to athletes nonetheless. And i do believe that attendance surprise many. The first game especially, i believe, will draw 20,000 plus to the dome, and maybe even upwards of 30,000. There are so many GSU alum still living in the city, and the excitement of starting a new program is sure to draw a crowd. But I also believe that GSU will get a draw from another demographic. There are still 400,000 people that live in the city limits of Atlanta and another 5 million in the metro area. In an area that puts such a premium on competitive football, I think it is likely the city will be interested to see where GSU football goes and will pay the small fees to watch history take place.
Already we are beginning to see the effects of these advantages. Georgia State just signed a class of 28, and also added 4 big time college transfers. Two Georgia Tech offensive lineman, and Auburn Tight End, and an Alabama quarterback have all transferred to play ball this year at GSU. The quarterback transfer is by far the biggest acquisition by coach Curry's staff. He was a top 10 quarterback and a four star recruit according rivals.com. Therefore it is evident that there is a draw to playing for such a great coach, in such a great city, and having the excitement of starting a new program.
Monday, June 7, 2010
The Atomic Bomb of College Football.
Sorry about the long layoff. But I have rededicated myself and this summer will be covering all the latest sports news including the World Cup...
But today we will focus on the world of college football. Brace yourself, sports fans... because the landscape of College Football is about to be turned upside down.
We have heard the Big Ten banter ever since the late nineties when they tried to court Notre Dame to give up their massive TV Contracts and special BCS rules and come join their conference. However, things took a turn in the last few months when rumors began the Big Ten were looking to add as many as 3, maybe even 5 teams rather than just one, and that they had their eyes set on the big prize... The Texas Longhorns. These rumors (because that is what they are, simply rumors) have caused a whirlwind of epic proportions in College Football. Not wanting to be left out, the Pac-10 have preempted a Big Ten move by giving their commisioner the ok to add as many as 6 teams, with their eyes on the Big Ten South ( Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A & M, and Baylor). Meanwhile the Big 12 is giving Nebraska and Missouri ultimatums to decide whether or not they will stay in the Big 12.
I think the Big 12 has handled this horribly. They are now in a position that leaves them very vulnerable to complete collapse, with the Big 12 south jumping to join the Pac-10 and members of the big 12 north joining a few big east teams up north in Big Ten country.
Until the last week, these moves seemed like they were years away. Now they may be a matter of weeks away.
If the Big 10 and Pac 10 do expand their conferences to 16 teams, you can have no doubt that the SEC will not want to be left behind. You can bet they will also make a run at Texas before the process is done, but there are plenty of other targets in SEC country that already have connections to the conference. Such targets include Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Clemson has former ties with Auburn and Georgia, and they have the in-state rivalry with South Carolina. Miami and Florida State are good natural rivals and would create revenue by giving the SEC practically the entire state of Florida. Georgia Tech is probably the least attractive because they have the smallest stadium and the SEC already have a strong prescense in Atlanta, and therefore would not be adding a new market.
Other less attractice options for the SEC would be the Virginia schools, Louisville, and USF.
In the end, the magic number for these conferences appears to be 16. There are currently 65 BCS conference teams. My opinion is that when the dust clears, we will end up with four 16 team super conferences.
The SEC really is the key to all of this expansion talk. The reason the Big 10 started this whole mess was because of their hurting reputation in comparison with the SEC. However, I think the Big 10 may have dug it's whole even deeper... Their big prize is texas. However, it makes much more sense geographically for them to join the Pac-10 or SEC. Also, the Big 10 is unlikely to include any other schools from Texas, meaning the longhorns would lose their natural rivalries. I just don't see Texas going along with that. I also see Texas and Texas A&M as a package deal.
So it will come down to Texas. Will the Longhorns go out west to face the Bruins and Trojans every year? or would they rather stake their claim on College Football's most dominant conference?
My guess is that they will come over to the SEC. It just simply makes the most sense. I do still believe Texas A&M comes with them, leaving only 2 more spots for further expansion. The first moves that make sense are the Florida schools. They add new markets and solidify the state for the SEC. However, the conference is then in an interesting situation. Isn't Clemson or Georgia Tech more attractive than Vanderbilt? Vandy has made some strides in the last 5 years or so, but they have never and probably will never compete in this league. Therefore the commodores get the boot, and the SEC welcomes in the Clemson Tigers with open arms. (Sorry Tech, but the Tigers have a stadium that seats nearly 45,000 more and have a much bigger and more dedicated fan base).
Thus the layout of the Southeastern Conference
EAST
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Miami
Florida State
Clemson
WEST
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
Texas A&M
Which leaves the question... what has all this expansion really accomplished? All it has done is solidify the SEC as the premier conference of College Football. These 5 teams that they would be adding have a combined 13 national championships, 92 conference championships, and 7 heisman trophy winners. They add stadiums of 82,000, 76,500, 80,300, 83,000, and 100,000... all of which rank in the top 25 for college football stadiums.
The Big 10 and Pac 10 simply can not match that through expansion. The only scenario that comes cloes would be if the big 10 were able to add Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Missouri, and Nebraska all to the their conference. But that simply still does not macthup. The Pac-10 most likely adds the remaining big 12 teams, colorado, and (if they are smart) Boise St. To finish out the Big 10 will have to decide which Big East team they would like to add... most likely cininnati, west virginia, or pittsburgh (pittsburgh with the edge because of better tradition). And finally the mangled remains of the ACC and Big East combine to form their own "superconference" which Virginia Tech will most likely dominate.
Here's how those conferences could look.
Big "North" ( Big 10)
Ohio ST
Michigan
Mich St
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Purdue
Northwestern
Penn St
Iowa
Indiana
Illinois
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Pittsburgh
Big "West" (PAC- 10)
USC
Cal
UCLA
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
Arizona
ASU
Washington
WSU
Texas Tech
Boise St
Colorado
Boise St
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas St
Big East (combo of ACC and Big East)
West VA
Vigrinia
Va Tech
North Carolina
NC STATE
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Boston College
Duke
UCONN
USF
Cincinnati
Louisville
Vanderbilt
Rutgers
The real losers here are the two teams that have to say goodbye to major division division one football. With lowering the number of major conference teams from 65 to 64 and bringing in Boise, there has to be two teams that get the shaft.
This new expansion is also very condusive to a playoff. Have each conference have a conference championship and the winners duke it out in a four team playoff (or the winners get a better seed and the runners up take part in an 8 team playoff)... but lets not go down that road just yet...
One A-Bomb at a time...
But today we will focus on the world of college football. Brace yourself, sports fans... because the landscape of College Football is about to be turned upside down.
We have heard the Big Ten banter ever since the late nineties when they tried to court Notre Dame to give up their massive TV Contracts and special BCS rules and come join their conference. However, things took a turn in the last few months when rumors began the Big Ten were looking to add as many as 3, maybe even 5 teams rather than just one, and that they had their eyes set on the big prize... The Texas Longhorns. These rumors (because that is what they are, simply rumors) have caused a whirlwind of epic proportions in College Football. Not wanting to be left out, the Pac-10 have preempted a Big Ten move by giving their commisioner the ok to add as many as 6 teams, with their eyes on the Big Ten South ( Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A & M, and Baylor). Meanwhile the Big 12 is giving Nebraska and Missouri ultimatums to decide whether or not they will stay in the Big 12.
I think the Big 12 has handled this horribly. They are now in a position that leaves them very vulnerable to complete collapse, with the Big 12 south jumping to join the Pac-10 and members of the big 12 north joining a few big east teams up north in Big Ten country.
Until the last week, these moves seemed like they were years away. Now they may be a matter of weeks away.
If the Big 10 and Pac 10 do expand their conferences to 16 teams, you can have no doubt that the SEC will not want to be left behind. You can bet they will also make a run at Texas before the process is done, but there are plenty of other targets in SEC country that already have connections to the conference. Such targets include Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Clemson has former ties with Auburn and Georgia, and they have the in-state rivalry with South Carolina. Miami and Florida State are good natural rivals and would create revenue by giving the SEC practically the entire state of Florida. Georgia Tech is probably the least attractive because they have the smallest stadium and the SEC already have a strong prescense in Atlanta, and therefore would not be adding a new market.
Other less attractice options for the SEC would be the Virginia schools, Louisville, and USF.
In the end, the magic number for these conferences appears to be 16. There are currently 65 BCS conference teams. My opinion is that when the dust clears, we will end up with four 16 team super conferences.
The SEC really is the key to all of this expansion talk. The reason the Big 10 started this whole mess was because of their hurting reputation in comparison with the SEC. However, I think the Big 10 may have dug it's whole even deeper... Their big prize is texas. However, it makes much more sense geographically for them to join the Pac-10 or SEC. Also, the Big 10 is unlikely to include any other schools from Texas, meaning the longhorns would lose their natural rivalries. I just don't see Texas going along with that. I also see Texas and Texas A&M as a package deal.
So it will come down to Texas. Will the Longhorns go out west to face the Bruins and Trojans every year? or would they rather stake their claim on College Football's most dominant conference?
My guess is that they will come over to the SEC. It just simply makes the most sense. I do still believe Texas A&M comes with them, leaving only 2 more spots for further expansion. The first moves that make sense are the Florida schools. They add new markets and solidify the state for the SEC. However, the conference is then in an interesting situation. Isn't Clemson or Georgia Tech more attractive than Vanderbilt? Vandy has made some strides in the last 5 years or so, but they have never and probably will never compete in this league. Therefore the commodores get the boot, and the SEC welcomes in the Clemson Tigers with open arms. (Sorry Tech, but the Tigers have a stadium that seats nearly 45,000 more and have a much bigger and more dedicated fan base).
Thus the layout of the Southeastern Conference
EAST
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Miami
Florida State
Clemson
WEST
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
Texas A&M
Which leaves the question... what has all this expansion really accomplished? All it has done is solidify the SEC as the premier conference of College Football. These 5 teams that they would be adding have a combined 13 national championships, 92 conference championships, and 7 heisman trophy winners. They add stadiums of 82,000, 76,500, 80,300, 83,000, and 100,000... all of which rank in the top 25 for college football stadiums.
The Big 10 and Pac 10 simply can not match that through expansion. The only scenario that comes cloes would be if the big 10 were able to add Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Missouri, and Nebraska all to the their conference. But that simply still does not macthup. The Pac-10 most likely adds the remaining big 12 teams, colorado, and (if they are smart) Boise St. To finish out the Big 10 will have to decide which Big East team they would like to add... most likely cininnati, west virginia, or pittsburgh (pittsburgh with the edge because of better tradition). And finally the mangled remains of the ACC and Big East combine to form their own "superconference" which Virginia Tech will most likely dominate.
Here's how those conferences could look.
Big "North" ( Big 10)
Ohio ST
Michigan
Mich St
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Purdue
Northwestern
Penn St
Iowa
Indiana
Illinois
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Pittsburgh
Big "West" (PAC- 10)
USC
Cal
UCLA
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
Arizona
ASU
Washington
WSU
Texas Tech
Boise St
Colorado
Boise St
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas St
Big East (combo of ACC and Big East)
West VA
Vigrinia
Va Tech
North Carolina
NC STATE
Maryland
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Boston College
Duke
UCONN
USF
Cincinnati
Louisville
Vanderbilt
Rutgers
The real losers here are the two teams that have to say goodbye to major division division one football. With lowering the number of major conference teams from 65 to 64 and bringing in Boise, there has to be two teams that get the shaft.
This new expansion is also very condusive to a playoff. Have each conference have a conference championship and the winners duke it out in a four team playoff (or the winners get a better seed and the runners up take part in an 8 team playoff)... but lets not go down that road just yet...
One A-Bomb at a time...
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